Modelling transport fuels to 2100
A wide variety of Engineers, Economists, and Technologists have indicated that conventional oil production is near peak production and will thereafter steadily decline. A model of oil production, both conventional and unconventional, and a model of natural gas production was developed. Conventional oil production is predicted to peak sometime between 2010-2025, with the best guess of 2013. Unconventional oil production is estimated to peak between 2059-2067 at a maximum production of 23-45 bb/y. Total oil production is anticipated to decline in the short term (2010-2015), and to increase again after 2030, due to the production of unconventional oil, before declining permanently after 2055. Natural gas production is anticipated to peak in 2043 at 6.5 tcm/y. Conventional oil production is predicted to peak in the near future, and unconventional oil production is unable to provide a seamless transition. Only in highly optimistic scenarios do we see no short term oil supply issues. Natural gas demand will remain tight before natural gas production peaks, and hence natural gas is not practical as a mitigation option.