Predicting climate change: The challenges and opportunities for engineers and managers

  • Prof Garry Willgoose, University of Newcastle, Australia
  • For the last decade or more the focus of the climate change debate has been on what the impact of climate change will be as a result of the greenhouse gas emissions of human activities. In the last year or so the political climate (particularly in Australia) has changed so that debate is no longer (directly) about whether or not (and how much) climate change is happening. Rather the debate is now how to (a) ameliorate our emissions, and (b) adapt to the inevitable future impact of emissions. This talk is about the challenges involved in the second of these two issues, how do we best manage and operate our existing activities in a changing environment. As soon as we ask this question some difficult questions arise such as (1) how do we predict what are future emissions and their impacts, (2) what aspects of climate change impact on our operations and what flexibility do we have in our operations to adjust to them and if we don't have flexibility to adapt do we care, (3) do current climate change predictions provide the sort of information we need to know to best manage our operations, (4) what are the timescales over which adaptation might be required, and (5) are there commercial opportunities for the best adaptor and providing services to assist adaptation? This talk will discuss these questions and look at the potential role of the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility in climate change adaptation.